Having spent the last decade forecasting the economy, I am accustomed to being wrong about my predictions. So, I ask readers to forgive my gloating a bit when I correctly foretell the future. I am talking of course about the recent school referenda in Indiana. Let me explain.
Since the passage of HEA 1001, better known as property tax caps, I have prophesied a day in which local governments became more adept at their fiscal management and local taxpayers more supportive of higher taxes. The May 2014 elections suggest that day is coming.
In this election cycle, only one of 10 school corporations saw its referendum fail. Nine other corporations won additional property taxes for a variety of construction and operations efforts. This loss was understandable.
Of the 10 schools corporations asking for referenda, seven had raw performance or student growth scores that were above average in the most recent year. All of these won their referenda. Of the three schools with below average achievement and student growth, two school corporations asked for operating funds, primarily for transportation. They both won.
Madison Consolidated Schools asked for a large tranche to build a new gymnasium and choral rooms along with other infrastructure improvements. Unfortunately, Madison had arguably the worst school performance of the 10 seeking referenda in this election and there’s not much to suggest they are improving. The measure lost badly with 3 out of 4 voters opposing the measure.
We should draw two lessons from these recent referenda.
First, the vigorous reform efforts of 2007 through the present, including the tea party movement and numerous small constituencies across the state, were never really an anti-tax movement. They were something altogether bigger and more important. What we have seen in Indiana and elsewhere is broad frustration over the value of government, not simply its cost.
Second, those school corporations that won their referenda were on average better performing than those that lost. I also think they did a better job of explaining their needs to taxpayers, but this is only a hypothesis because we cannot directly measure that.