By PEDRO VELAZCO
Tribune columnist
March 04, 2008 11:08 pm
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Twice in the last couple weeks I’ve listened as national sports radio hosts lamented that this is the worst time of the year, the dead time. The Super Bowl is over and the NFL draft has yet to begin. There’s nothing to talk about.
See, this is one of the many reasons I’m opposed to daylight savings time. Exactly why do we need to walk in lockstep with the rest of the nation when the rest of the nation is so clueless?
This isn’t the worst time of the year, it’s the best time and here’s why:
Between now and the next two weeks, almost anything can happen in college basketball. This year in particular, there are fewer guaranteed spots wrapped up in the NCAA tournament and more bubble teams fighting for scraps than we’ve seen in a while. That means the last week of regular-season action and the conference tournaments should be intense.
Heading into Monday’s action I counted almost 30 teams on the bubble — teams which had a chance to win their way into the tourney, but were not yet safe. And yet I also counted 20 teams from BCS leagues that were assured of getting a bid. With just 34 at-large bids to the tourney, that doesn’t leave a lot of room for error for those schools still fighting to get in. Essentially, they have to turn heads this week and next or else they’re going to enjoy the tourney on TV.
Let’s start in the Big Ten. I know, I know, most of us haven’t seen much of the Big Ten this season but I’ve seen enough to know that Purdue, Wisconsin, IU and Michigan State are tourney bound. That leaves two teams on the bubble: plummeting Ohio State and a pleasant surprise in Minnesota.
Neither strikes me as likely to make the tourney. As I write this Tuesday, Minnesota has two games left, both on the road, at Indiana and at Illinois. Ohio State had lost four straight and has two home games left, against Purdue and against Michigan State.
Moving on to my perennial pick as the best league in the nation, I only see three ACC teams that have wrapped up spots — Duke, North Carolina and … Clemson.
Clemson? You know, I don’t know that I’ve ever looked at a Clemson squad and said “I like that team” but this year, I have to. Last weekend I watched Clemson rally from 20 points down with about 10 minutes left at fellow contender Maryland and win the game on a 3-pointer by a freshman in the final seconds. That was the most heart I’ve ever seen a Clemson team show.
Maryland, on the other hand, still has some work to do. The Terrapins are on the bubble with Miami and Virginia Tech.
Moving west, only a couple Big 12 teams are secure, with seemingly half the league on the bubble. Kansas and Texas are locks, each with teams capable of making the final four. But after that, there are no guarantees.
Kansas State seemed like a sure-fire NCAA team a couple weeks ago until four straight losses dropped K-State to 8-6 in the league. The remedy may come in the form of games against league doormats Colorado and Iowa State this week. Meanwhile, the other 8-6 team, Baylor, has a harder road with games against Texas A&M and Texas Tech this week. Scott Drew’s Baylor could really use some wins to get in the tourney and complete its feel-good storyline.
In worse position are three teams that were 7-7 heading into Tuesday: A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Throw in 7-8 Tech (a team some prognosticators already had in the tourney prior to Monday night’s epic loss to Kansas) and you see why the league tourney will be so important for the Big 12 hopefuls.
Moving all the way to the left coast, the Pac-10 has been my favorite league to watch this season. UCLA, Stanford and Washington State are in and USC probably is, but I’ve heard reasonable TV pundits talk about seven or even eight teams from this league making the tourney. I can’t imagine it, but somebody can.
Arizona State is 8-8 in Pac-10 play and has impressed me with its turnaround this season. I can’t say I’m nearly as impressed with Arizona and Oregon, both 7-9. Both should be better but both are fading. Arizona has lost four of its last five, and Oregon lost three in a row before beating winless Oregon State on Sunday.
The Big East is such a mess, all I can tell you is that the cream of the crop is sure to get in. Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette and refreshingly good Notre Dame are all solid NCAA picks. But for a league that often argues it should get eight or more teams in, there are a lot of unknowns. Pitt and West Virginia are good candidates but neither is secure. Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Villanova and Syracuse don’t have much to stand on except name value.
Outside of Kentucky and Tennessee, I don’t see many SEC games. Tennessee looks great, Vandy looks good and Kentucky has a fighting chance to make the tourney but must overcome a lot of bad baggage from the pre-conference season. A 10-4 league record so far may have just done that.
Mississippi State (11-3) should be a lock but Arkansas (8-6) is turning heads with good wins that offset six losses. Defending champion Florida is also 8-6 but has not been particularly impressive. The Gators host Tennessee and visit Kentucky in their last two league games. Ouch.
By and large, I think league tournaments for BCS conferences are pretty boring. The action is in the one-bid leagues. But this year, with so many teams on the bubble and so much on the line, the big conferences just might prove me wrong.
Pedro Velazco is a Tribune sportswriter. He may be contacted by e-mail at pedro.velazco@kokomotribune.com.
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